Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Election 2010..... the stimulus and economy

The Liberal campaign has been primarily a scare campaign. Over the last few weeks, Labor have also been taking that low road.

The Liberal scare campaign though, relies on fooling the public.

Alot of the Liberal scare slogans are to do with perceived government waste. On the previous post we proved that their claims against the BER were false. Now let's look at their claims that the government actions weren't responsible for us avoiding recession. The Liberals claim it was the healthy surplus of $20 Billion the Howard govt left us with.

The truth it, it was both.

How Liberal supporters can claim the government reaction to the GFC was to waste money is a joke. The govt took quick action, targeted towards short-term stability and medium to long term growth.

The short-term action was the $900 cash payments to keep confidence up, and businesses going. If that hadn't happened, more businesses would have shut down, which would have led to loss of jobs, which would have led to less money being spent, less taxes coming in, and more money going out on benefits. That is a downward spiral which is very hard to get out of, and makes every facet of the economy worse.

The medium and long term actions are the infrastructure ones (BER, Pink Batts, NBN etc). They keep alot of people employed, while at the same time giving us infrastructure (something sadly neglected during 12 years of the Howard govt).

You can't argue with the facts. And the fact is that we avoided recession.... just. The Liberal party say it could have been done with less money spent... $20 Billion less. As we only just avoided a 2nd quarter of negative growth (2 negative quarters of growth), then I think common sense would tell you that if any less money had been spent, then we would have entered into recession. So the govt spending was about right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

The die-hard Liberals (and Tony Abbott) have said that the stimulus didn't help America or the UK. Those two countries had different reactions to the recession. Neither of them had the immediate reaction and cash bonus that Australia did. This was a key omission... they reacted too slowly and were more interested in propping up their failing banks, than providing a cash injection to keep people spending and businesses and employment going.

As with anything rushed out, there will be mistakes made and money wasted. Pink Batts is a prime example (and is being investigated by the govt). Not enough monitoring was happening, which allowed some companies to rort the scheme and put in untrained personnel, which killed some people.

Overall though, the stimulus has been a success. Don't believe the Liberal party, who, if they had been in charge, would have guaranteed we would be in recession. Businesses would have shut, people would have lost jobs, unemployment would be high and revenue low.

As it is, unemployment is at record lows, interest rates are relatively low, and we are due to be back in surplus in  2012/2013.

Nearly all the economists agree, Australia should be commended for how it reacted to the GFC.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/16/2984733.htm

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/13366-stiglitz-sticks-it-to-abbott%27s-ideas.html

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/nobel-prize-winner-joseph-stiglitz-praises-labors-economic-credentials/story-fn5rhcx2-1225902011727

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-deserves-some-credit-not-death-at-the-ballot-box-20100817-128at.html?autostart=1

Basically, the Liberals have either been lying to get into power, or truly do believe what they say. I don't know which is scarier. Whichever, they have absolutely no credibility on the economy, and I`m surprised people have been falling for their scare tactics.

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